Happy Hour just got quite a bit HAPPIER! After a week of early voting, The Atlantic takes a look at some critical states and the Florida analysis looks really good!
Who’s leading the early vote: Democrats, 43 percent to 41 percent.
How significant is it: More than 50 percent voted early in 2008.
The spin: Though Democrats are leading the combined early and absentee vote in Florida, they led it in 2008 by a much greater margin. Their current lead of nearly 60,000 votes is far short of the 280,000-vote lead (and 46-37 margin) they carried into Election Day in 2008. (The dropoff could be a result of the shortening of in-person early voting.) Republicans’ share of the early vote, 41 percent, is 5 points higher than their share of voter registration, 36 percent, while Democrats’ 43 percent of early voters is just 2 points above their 41 percent voter registration share. In a state Obama won by less than 3 points in 2008, where the majority of votes are early and Republicans tend to win Election Day, any falloff should be concerning for Democrats.
Who’s really winning: Republicans.